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Growth reduced HuJiao shallow amplitude recovery
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Yesterday, the domestic economic growth rate is reduced by the effect of amplitude recovery, HuJiao shallow.
According to a Reuters survey, this year Chinese economic growth rate may decline further, by the new credit downturn, decline, the real estate market and weak global demand constraints.
The median estimate of a Reuters poll in January 15th to 19 days of the show, Chinese economy is expected to grow 7% in 2015, further slowed to 6.8% next year.
20 released data or will display China, economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 7.2%, serious global financial crisis period since the slow.
Chinese is in descending the worst period 20-30 years, due in part to the government's efforts to make economic investment and exports from the height, to rely on consumption and service transformation.
At present, there Chinese housing supply surplus and over investment problem.
If Chinese conforms to the median estimate of fourth quarter growth in a Reuters poll, which means that in 2014 the Chinese annual economic growth rate of less than 7.5% of the government set a target, and will record an annual growth rate of the lowest in recent 25 years.
Although 2014 has passed, but this will be enhanced for China need further relax policy calls.
Expected, the central bank will Chinese quarterly in October before the drop quasi two times, each time 50 basis points, to relax the liquidity of banks to lend more to.
At the end of last year the central bank will Chinese one-year lending rate to 5.6%. The central bank is expected to, or will again cut interest rate of loan to 5.4% in the second quarter.
China further economic slowdown, has the possibility to make the 2015 economic rejuvenation of global risk. According to the world bank, America strong employment and economic activity is a single engine currently lead the global economy "".
Indeed, China and eurozone economic growth is lower than previously expected, is the biggest risk facing the global economic growth this year.
Even if the public sector investment continues and low cost of oil imports obvious benefits, but the real estate activities and measures to control cooling on credit, and highlights the risk of further slowdown in economic growth.
The actual use of foreign capital Chinese (FDI) scale is an important index to measure the health of the global economy. The year 2014 FDI an increase of 1.7%, growth rate far lower than the 5.3% in 2013.
China credit growth is not expected, although the central bank in November last year had accidentally shot cut. This is because the level of debt and bad debt of enterprises increased, so that banks remain reluctant to lend.
All the time since, Chinese governments rely on credit stimulus, but overall economic slowdown, also inhibited the industry demand for new loans.
The people's Bank of China says 16 days, then the amount of loans increased 50000000000 yuan, support financial institutions to expand the "San Nong" (agriculture, rural areas and farmers) and Small and micro businesses on credit, to continue to implement the directional control, structural adjustment.
The real estate market to 15% in the proportion of China economy accounted for, the industry from hot to cold, the impact to the steel, cement and other furniture 40 industry demand, to become the largest single drag on domestic economic activities.
Consumer price inflation is also expected to remain at low levels, largely due to sluggish domestic demand and global energy and commodity prices plummet.
Investigation shows, the average inflation rate of 2015 in 2016 and may respectively in 2% and 2.5%. This also reflects the current distress large economies inflation falling trend, the euro area prices have even started to fall, and may pose a threat to economic activity.
By the above factors, HuJiao shallow amplitude recovery.
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This article from the Shenzhen City Qiyu Silicone Rubber Co., Ltd.: http://www.szhcty.com/news_v.asp? Id=300
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