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Shenzhen Qiyu reports: HuJiao macroeconomic volatility shocks
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Yesterday, the impact of the macroeconomic fluctuations, HuJiao regional shocks.
National Bureau of statistics data show that in 2014 1~12 months, the national real estate development investment nominal growth year-on-year growth of 10.5%, the highest since the 2013 January low; over the same period, the national fixed asset investment nominal growth year-on-year growth of 15.7%, the lowest since 2013 January, tongchuang.
Compared with the year 2013 the growth rate of real estate investment, last year the growth rate of real estate investment almost halved. "Daily economic news" reporter was informed that, according to Morgan chase estimates, including indirect impact on related industries, real estate, real estate drag on GDP growth by 1.1 percentage point or so. According to reports, the central bank research bureau published said, real estate development investment slowdown will cause China's real GDP growth slowed in 2015. In 2014, China's GDP of 63.65 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, down 7.5% in the early development of the target around 2013 GDP growth of 7.7% on the left.
With the euro zone in 2014 December, the inflation rate fell to negative, the European Central Bank is expected to January 22nd monetary policy meeting the introduction of quantitative easing (QE) policy.
The European central bank governor Delagi said recently, the composition and size of the European Central Bank is prepared to adjust the euro currency in early 2015 stimulus measures, this is the market interpreted as the European Central Bank may soon start large-scale purchases of government bonds plan. Most European Central Bank official CMC also expressed support for this plan.
But the current situation, when QE launched, in what form the launch and launch effect also exists some uncertainties.
One is the largest economy in the eurozone, the German central bank for such initiatives opposed most of the firm, and that the ECB will ultimately foot the bill for the risk of other members of the cumulative. The German Central Bank President Wiedemann said, even in 2014 December the inflation rate turned negative, currently there is no need to take further stimulus, he also questioned the QE policy effect, think this may reduce the reform initiative crisis countries.
The two is the Greek election factors. In January 22nd the European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting. But since January 25th Greece will hold a general election, may result in the European Central Bank has delayed QE, or launched only limited range of QE measures.
For these reasons, it is expected that in January 22nd the European Central Bank will make the principles of the implementation of the new round of QE's decision, specific measures may be delayed until after March. In so doing, one is that the European Central Bank has time to observe the changes in the political situation in Greece; two for zone countries on Greek debt restructuring agreement; three is to make the European Central Bank has time for full consultations on specific content, a new round of the scale of QE, the key is to strive for the support of germany.
The Bank of Japan decided in 21 of the monetary policy meeting, maintain 80 annual trillion yen asset purchases unchanged, in line with market expectations. The Bank of Japan also decided that, due to the recent international crude oil prices fell sharply, cut the country this fiscal year and next year's inflation expectations.
Specifically, the Bank of Japan in fiscal year 2014 (ending March 31, 2015) inflation expectations from 1.2% down to 0.9%, 2015 from the previous 1.7% year inflation expectations dropped to 1%, but at the same time in fiscal year 2016, inflation expectations from 2.1% up to 2.2%.
The Bank of Japan emphasizes, the earlier the 2% inflation target is expected in 2016 March, at the end of fiscal 2015 reached. However, due to energy prices, inflation in Japan is likely to continue to maintain a low over a period of time. The bank also said that at present, the Japanese economy continues to moderate recovery. The fiscal year 2015, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected from the increased to 2.1% 1.5% years ago.
To stimulate the sluggish economy and prevent the decline in oil prices pose a threat to inflation, the Bank of Japan in October last year, the accident will be the scale of asset purchases by the previous 60 trillion -70 trillion yen to expand to 80 trillion yen. But since October last year, oil prices plunged nearly 50%, making the Japanese central bank monetary policy again under pressure. The latest data show that in November last year, Japan's inflation rate slowed down further to 0.7%. Market analysts expect the Bank of Japan may not be able to achieve the inflation target in the current monetary policy under the guidance of, probably later this year to take further measures to stimulate.
Subject to the macro economic situation influence, HuJiao regional shocks.
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