Review: styrene butadiene rubber market in 2014 lasted a few years ago concussion situation, especially in the second half of the decline was out of control, has continued to decline for the first half of the year, as of the end of 12, the representative of the market price hit a new low since January 7, 2009, and the decline continued in. Can be seen from the figure, throughout the year, the second half of the year appeared a down market, only the second half of the decline is larger, longer duration. The annual representative market Qilu styrene butadiene 1502 price range in 9850-13300 yuan / ton, Qilu styrene butadiene 1712 price range in 8800-12700 yuan / ton. In Qilu styrene butadiene 1502 as an example, the highest price appeared in the 13300 yuan / at the end of the 7 tons, the lowest in the 9850 yuan / at the end of 12 tons, the maximum fluctuation amplitude of about 25.94%, far below the near 60%. 2012-2013 years of this and has fallen down after SBR product price base has lower more direct relationship.
Spring Festival effect release, styrene butadiene years market depth diving
After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovery is slow, and this product inventory is generally higher, the relative lack of social order, and the raw materials inventory continues to accumulate, the contradiction of supply and demand is prominent. According to the com www downstream from the learned years ago businesses intention of preparing 10-30 days for inventory, years after the digestive inventory, and most plant defers resumption of work time, demand remains weak; in addition the middleman for years after the market uncertainty, trader actively is weak, the supply pressure is more and more big. Enter February bad finally "blowout", the sales company continuous price Jiancang, market price depth diving. This trend continued until mid March. Zhuo and data display, the current high-end Qilu 1502 quotation 13250 yuan / ton, the low-end price 11350 yuan / ton, the maximum wave amplitude is about 14%.
Multi factor cooperation "feel, sbr"
3 month, with many domestic air temperatures rise, styrene butadiene rubber market has also ushered in the "long spring". Experienced in up to one and a half months after the fall of the 3 month, the dawn of butadiene styrene rubber market. Not only due to the natural rubber futures rose driven, would also like to thank the tacit understanding with the raw materials and sales companies and middlemen "". But the two quarter, although a change a quarter down concussion trend rebound, but because the demand is not strong, and the expansion of rubber price decline, so is still short Sheng, rebound road is bumpy. Even the June rebound to a certain price appears after more than a month stalemate situation. Zhuo and data display, the current high-end Qilu 1502 quotation 13300 yuan / ton, the low-end price 11350 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of fluctuation of nearly 15%.
Bear raids, the decline difficult to stop
At the beginning of August, styrene butadiene rubber market in years second dial tumbled market in the two quarter after ascending through the difficult. Crude oil continued to fall sharply lower external disk, butadiene, styrene butadiene supply relatively ample, and rubber price is long-term under butadiene styrene price operation, resulting in styrene butadiene rubber prices decline a get out of hand. The ample supply and high price of butadiene in Asia, Europe and America goods into the Asian arbitrage, while the downstream synthetic rubber started poorly, the imbalance between supply and demand lead prices diving down the domestic market driven synchronous. Although this period of styrene butadiene plant operating rate remained at 60%, but compared to the weak demand, supply side is still adequate, and the product homogenization serious, intense competition, so difficult to boost weak market formation. In addition, competitive products, rubber this year hit a new low for many years, and long-term than SBR dry glue price operation, reduce the dosage of downstream parts factory synthesis, multi-purpose rubber alternative, low-cost synthetic rubber rubber on a larger impact, leading to price long-term stumble endlessly, even during the bounce is a flash in the pan, the decline continued until the end of the year, the price reached a new low since January 7, 2009.
Zhuo think the second half of the market, on the one hand from the international oil price falls continuously impact, as of December 31, 2014, WTI prices have dropped to near $53 a barrel, and the industry forecasts this dial is expected to fall to $40 per barrel; USA Energy Information Administration forecast in 2015 American benchmark crude oil will fold in the near $55 a barrel; the other is the downstream demand downturn. In view of the upstream products fall, both butadiene or styrene and butadiene styrene were deep diving, the market supply is relatively abundant, the market outlook is expected to pessimistic industry, raw material purchase of on-demand procurement schedule to keep small, intermediate business inventory without leaving, according to need to open. In addition, this year the tyre downstream demand is poor, finished goods inventory backlog, prices Jiancang is important in the whole year, whether operating rates or prices are falling.
Prediction: styrene butadiene rubber market in 2015 is expected to show the bottom of moderate rebound, but the rebound may be more limited. Whether operating rate or average annual prices will continue to decline, the weak operating by 2014. Main reasons affecting the styrene butadiene rubber market trend in 2015, outside the one, the tendency of international oil prices guidance; second, a reasonable trade-off problem of excess production capacity; third, the downstream demand downturn change; fourthly, cost oriented enterprise survival differences apparent.
The 2015 crude oil futures fell after the whole will stabilize, then a slow recovery, but the recovery will be relatively long period. The supply side, the crude oil market is still continuation of loose tone, the exploitation and utilization of American shale oil, enough to keep production to maintain growth momentum. In addition, another major oil producing countries -- Russia, the ruble devaluation though, the domestic economy suffered heavy losses, but in order to maintain the government revenue and expenditure, the country's oil exports will maintain a steady growth momentum. The periphery aspect, although the global turmoil, geopolitical crisis continues to heat up, the future oil market potentially supporting, but OPEC production cuts no unilateral intention,
By the end of 2014, the total capacity of 1600000 tons of styrene butadiene rubber, the future is still under construction 480000 tons / year of the device will be put into production. In 2014 the total output of styrene butadiene rubber in about 1070000 tons, apparent consumption of about 1300000 tons, production capacity surplus rate of nearly 20%, and this trend will increase, so that the styrene butadiene rubber device operating rate in 2015 will continue to decline. The low utilization rate of the existing production device, and new device put into operation after the commissioning of the continuation, or to continuous production will become the norm.
Finished goods inventory remains high, continued to depreciate sales promotion, structural overcapacity, tire exports meet barriers to trade is the most prominent feature of this year tire industry. Late to solve the excess capacity, and strict control of the new tire project, such as the adjustment of industrial structure will solve the tire industry is a problem for the future. In addition, in 2015, the global economy still hard to make a breakthrough, after a hit in 2014, the first problem facing the enterprise funds is still, and the impact of trade barriers, on the influence of big enterprise. The downstream tire factory on the procurement of raw materials will remain on-demand procurement, delivery intention is not obvious, it is difficult to improve the low demand state.
Although this year the market fell again and again, let the styrene butadiene rubber industry into the era of low profit or loss. Crude oil prices continued to fall, the two major raw materials of butadiene and styrene were sharply diving. According to Zhuo and understand the information, east of butadiene market in 2014 the average price of 10172 yuan / tons, annulus comparing fell 10.97%; East China styrene price in 2014 10810 yuan / tons, annulus comparing fell 14.5%, and styrene butadiene rubber in 15022014 the average price of 12260 yuan / ton, or 11.7%. But because the state-owned enterprise has the advantages of raw materials, so the overall situation should be relatively optimistic; private enterprises of raw materials used in many foreign mining, high cost, so the profit or loss has become the norm. The late styrene butadiene industry needs to face integration, but requires a very long process.
Overall, styrene butadiene rubber in 2015 would show the bottom of moderate rebound trend, but the rebound will not be too optimistic. Oil prices in the 40-65 dollars / barrel fluctuations between May, 1502 and styrene butadiene rubber in the 8000-12500 yuan / ton more likely. After the second half of this year after falling waterfall, merchant trader will sum up experience, know more rational trader, reasonable hedge. In addition, with the continuing price declines, may attract some of the speculative capital injection, constantly buying small amounts fell in the process, to seek a certain income. Even so, it is expected that in 2015 the styrene butadiene rubber market will is a more difficult year, the industry to do the hard work to prepare.
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This article from the Shenzhen City Qiyu Silicone Rubber Co., Ltd.: http://www.szhcty.com/news_v.asp? Id=310
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