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Rubber prices "roller coaster" phenomenon, why the oversupply?
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China is the world's third largest rubber plantation, but also the first big natural rubber importer and consumer. In recent years, under the influence of many factors, the international natural rubber market increasing factors of instability, price volatility, serious impact on the world natural rubber consumption and production, also is not conducive to China's natural rubber industry stable development.
Rubber prices "roller coaster" phenomenon of oversupply?
The fundamental reason of the price fluctuation of natural rubber is the classical law of market economy. But what is the specific reason for the oversupply of natural rubber? Can be resolved from the following two aspects-
Supply of natural rubber in China
1, foreign imports
2, domestic production
3, to inventory
Two, the supply of natural rubber in China
1, a large number of rubber tree species of rubber tree
Many scholars in the empirical research found that the international natural rubber price is the most important factor in domestic natural rubber price fluctuations. Analysis of the causes of the international natural rubber price fluctuations from the root causes of China's natural rubber price fluctuations of the fuse.
(1) the increase in production has brought internal competition.
(2) lack of supply price elasticity.
(3) lack of regulatory capacity of the producing country.
2, China's lack of scientific budget for natural rubber imports
There is no doubt that the market demand is the fundamental to determine the amount of imports of goods. The amount of imports by a country's manufacturing sector is expected to determine the market demand. The import of natural rubber is no exception. However, in China's natural rubber imports, but the lack of scientific budget, reflected in the following aspects.
(1) the stock of the initial stock is too high.
(2) farm adverse selection.
(3) natural rubber downstream demand is not natural.
(4) alternative product extrusion market space.
Anyway, for the price of natural rubber in China, in the short term was very difficult to improve, the main reason is that China's natural rubber oversupply situation nearly a step increase in current across Southeast Asia are in tapping, increase natural rubber supply; American double reverse shadow ring has not yet subsided, South Africa has pointed out Chinese tire dumping signs, for China's tire exports restricted, for tire industry is undoubtedly worse. The downturn in the tire industry has led to a decrease in demand for natural rubber. From this it seems that China's natural rubber prices in the short term, it is difficult to rise even there is still possible to continue to fall.
This paper is from Shenzhen,, id=468?
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