China and the United States economic downturn natural rubber prices are affected by the reasons
In the near future, the price of natural rubber is affected by two aspects, one is domestic, the two is international, and the international aspect is the United States. Shenzhen under the odd silicone rubber on the details of the share.
Domestic aspects, July China's service industry business activities to further expand, the growth rate hit a 11 month high. But involved in the manufacturing expansion rate hit a two-year low, in July, the new China's comprehensive PMI further decline.
Markit has just released data show that in July the financial new China service industry PMI53.8, the former value of 51.8. China's financial new comprehensive PMI50.2 in July, the former value of 50.6.
In July, the new China's comprehensive PMI (including manufacturing and services) shows that China's total economic activity into a step growth, but the new composite output index fell from 50.6 in June to 50.2, only slightly higher than the critical value of 50, the expansion rate of 14 months since the weakest.
Survey shows that China's overall output expansion rate decreased, is mainly affected by the manufacturing, month of its output a 2011 November since the maximum decrement. Service activities are further expanded, the growth rate hit a 11 month high, the general service industry business activity index in July recorded 53.8, more than the recent low of June (51.8).
New orders index and employment were significantly higher than the previous month, the service industry is still expanding trend, but not enough to offset the negative impact of the manufacturing sector, the comprehensive PMI from 50.6 down to 50.2 this month, the economic recovery has slowed down. Continued weakness in the manufacturing sector will be conducted to the service sector to make it unsustainable. To consolidate the economic recovery, easing policy is still necessary.
July, support services business activities to accelerate the expansion of the new business volume is further growth, new orders growth rose to a considerable level, a high value for 8 months.
Investigation shows, customer needs strengthening, increase new customers, promote the service industry new business growth. The manufacturing industry is the opposite, in new business volume had a substantial decline, the end of June, a slight increase trend. Both integrated, the total amount of new business growth is slightly, in the current expansion period of 15 months is the weakest.
In July, the service sector continued to increase employment, and the growth rate increased slightly in June, many of the respondents said the reasons for the company to expand the plan and the company. Manufacturing employment continues to shrink, but the shrinkage rate is slowing down last month. Therefore, the scale of the overall employment of second consecutive months of contraction, but the magnitude is only mild. Due to an increase in manpower, the July service industry's backlog of work can be reduced for sixth consecutive months, but the decline is still small. Manufacturing enterprises have caused a slight increase in the amount of the backlog due to output contraction. They are integrated, the backlog of work in general for fourth consecutive months of decline, but the magnitude of the.
In July, the average cost of service industry continued to rise, although the increase slightly over June, but still below the historical average. The cost of manufacturing is a big drop, resulting in a slight decline in the cost of integrated investment in July. After experiencing a slight drop in June, the service sector companies in July to raise the price of fees, although the increase is still small, but it has been the most significant since September 2013. Manufacturing product prices are the biggest decline in 6 months.
Data show that in July the new Chinese manufacturing industry PMI unexpectedly fell to 47.8, the lowest in two years, the month shrinkage rate of 44 months, the most significant, and is the 50 consecutive month below the critical value of fifth, showing the manufacturing operation has been the most obvious slowdown since July 2013.
At the same time, the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, on August 1, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center released data show that in July made in China PMI was 50.0, down 0.2 percentage points than last month, also lower than market expectations after 50.2. Multi analysis, July PMI fell to the critical point, showing that the current economic downward pressure is still relatively large, is expected to more stable growth measures will be launched in the 3 quarter.
In the short term, overall demand is difficult to significantly improve, emerging industry highlights but accounted for than Co., industrial production downward pressure is still large, infrastructure and other remains steady growth the main starting point.
On the international side, the trend of the U.S. economy is the key to the future of the global economic trend. Latest data show that the United States in the two quarter GDP growth of 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%.
In the past two years, the United States of America's economy shows signs of recovery. The continuous improvement of the labor market, the gradual recovery of investment spending, and the return of the industrialization and manufacturing, the steady release of potential demand, the restoration of the balance sheet of enterprise and financial institution, and the increase of capital return after the withdrawal of QE policy have laid the foundation of American economic growth.
Since the 2008 international financial crisis, the U.S. trade deficit has been significantly reduced, exports to the economic growth of the pull of a significant increase. In the rest of the world's major economies or continue to decline, or growth slowed down in the differentiation of growth in the background, the United States economy is more outstanding.
However, in the long run, many deep-seated contradictions in the economic and social constraints of the United States have not been completely resolved, low growth, low employment, high debt become the characteristics of this era. The United States truly complete economic restructuring, to achieve a strong recovery is still time.
U.S. economic growth is still below the level of potential growth rate. Since 2008, the U.S. nominal GDP growth trend line 15% behind, recent World Bank will 2015 GDP down by 0.5 percentage points, strong growth is not yet available.
The average annual growth rate of the national real income is higher than 4%, the wage level has begun to rise. In the first quarter of this year, the company's wages and pensions and other benefits of the year on year rose by 2.6%. But the economic structure of two yuan is still serious, high added value of the financial, R & D and design industry and relatively low productivity and low added value of low-end service industry structure of the u.s..
The United States has a significant recovery in the job market, but the job is increasingly high degree of education, high skills and low degree, low skill ends tilt.
The problem of the US's fiscal cliff has been greatly eased. 2015 budget for the new fiscal year budget deficit was $474000000000, accounting for 2.5% of GDP, much lower than 2009 of fiscal year 9.8%, but the source of debt and wealth creation ability of the deviation degree is still at a high level.
The private sector to leverage the end of the U.S. economy into a new round of growth cycle. The increase of household wealth and the continuous improvement of the employment market support the residents consumption, the low cost of financing, the use of capacity utilization and business confidence to enhance the investment gradually active. The gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is close to a new high, the highest level of wealth inequality in nearly a century.
Based on this, the need to closely track the impact of the U.S. monetary policy adjustment on the global and u.s.. In the process of reducing the purchase of debt and the final implementation of the interest rate normalization process, how to control the stimulation of credit, investment and consumption, and a series of policy exit time is essential.
The Fed's withdrawal from QE is a new start to the normal cycle. Given the dollar's central role in determining the global liquidity, once the U.S. Federal Reserve to master the global monetary and the end of the asset purchase program, the global monetary base will be reduced by stagnation, is bound to lead to the global overall pool water level dropped.
The global economic and financial landscape is undergoing profound changes. With the U.S. dollar into a strong cycle or even rate hike cycle, will make many of the emerging economies of the dollar denominated in overseas debt risk exposure, greatly increasing the risk of global economic and financial spillovers, increasing the debt burden of international debt in some emerging economies, resulting in a sharp increase in default risk.
Especially in the resurgence of the Greek debt crisis, lingering debt crisis, emerging market volatility, the devaluation of their currencies, capital outflow, the United States must take into account and to assume the major responsibility for maintaining the global financial stability and international policy coordination.
Therefore, by the above factors, HuJiao weaker shocks.
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