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Natural rubber market is still in the "winter period"
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Excess pressure is still there
With the advent of natural rubber production Wang, will continue to remain weak pattern. On the one hand, downstream demand does not improve, continued poor terminal sales data, tire companies operating rate continued to decline; on the other hand, the current main production countries glue face high perinatal, although the main producing areas of China's natural rubber face tapping losses and abandoned cut rate rise and other issues, but the market supply left pressure still exists, making Haitian market weak hard to change.
Downstream demand has not improved significantly, the terminal sales data is still poor
Data show that as of mid September, Qingdao bonded rubber stocks rose to 166300 tons, compared with August rose 19600 tons, or 13.36%. Specifically, the Haitian inventory for 14.11 million tons, compared to the end of August rose 2.05 million tons, is still a main adhesive used in the inventory growth; adhesive stocks was 0.78 million tons, compared with 8 at the end of the month fell 0.12 million tons, the decline was 13.33%; and the synthetic rubber stocks was 1.74 million tons, compared to the end of August rose 0.03 million tons, or 1.75 percent.
According to the analysis of Santi Hengtai futures researcher, first of all, continued high number of China's imports of natural rubber, but the downstream demand is weak. In heavy truck market, for example, August China heavy truck sales car about 3.5 million vehicles, up sharply decreased by 27%, supply exceeds demand is still very obvious. Secondly, by the United States, Brazil and other "double reverse" survey, China's tire exports dropped significantly. At the same time due to the frequent international trade friction, China's tire exports have further decline in May, then, Haitian demand also will remain weak.
"The global economy continues to be weak, the commodity is still maintaining the low oscillation, the short term is difficult to break through. At the same time, crude oil prices continue to fall or pressure on the price of synthetic rubber, which makes rubber prices remain under pressure." Santi to futures Daily reporter said that the effect of the "golden nine silver ten" season this year, converting, main reason or for more than demand situation difficult to change, may also aggravate natural rubber market fluctuations because of the deviation of expected demand and the actual situation.
Rubber price has fallen below the cost price of China's natural rubber reclamation, abandoned cut rate rise
At present, natural rubber prices continued to slump, the imbalance between supply and demand has attracted the attention of the major producing country. International Rubber consortium, the latest weekly report shows that if the natural rubber prices continue at current low wandering, then rubber farmers may will be permanently discarded rubber plantation, to switch to other industries.
According to the futures Daily reporter, the world's rubber industry in the current oversupply situation, natural rubber market not than before, the adhesive of low price, high cost of rent, artificial tapping high cost makes most of the rubber plantation in a state of no tapping.
Is China, natural rubber prices has a nearly seven year low, dry glue price for 11000 yuan / ton, and Hainan private natural rubber production cost for 8000 yuan / ton, price of land reclamation for 12000 yuan / ton, the price of natural rubber has fallen below the cost of the land reclamation.
Hainan Haitian mainly state-run glue and private rubber, reporter learned that, although this year the state gum reduced is not serious, but private gum reduced amplitude is expected to in the 20% - 30%. In Hainan, due to the continued downturn in the price of plastic, part of the first line workers to abandon to engage in other occupations. More than 50 acres of rubber plantation was tapping, 30, 50 acres of rubber plantation tapping rate at around 30%, less than 30 acres of rubber plantation tapping rate of close to 100%, this and the cost of rent and the cost of artificial tapping.
Anyway, although producing areas in China, Haitian face tapping losses and abandoned cut rate rise and other issues, but the supply of excess pressure still exists, rubber market will still be in "cold winter".
This paper is from Shenzhen,, id=546?
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