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Recent market for natural rubber
After June 2015, HuJiao weak trend more obvious, glue price has been running in a downward trajectory, 1601 main contract in early June rebound shot up to 16490, after declining in short unscrupulous pressure retreat, from breaking 10000 point mark only one step away. In addition, the structure has undergone significant changes, the original 5 month contract premium 1 month contract pattern has been reversed, is far from monthly premium in recent months, the amplitude at about 300 points.
Import volume growth pushed up the inventory of the bonded area
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in October natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) import volume of 410000 tons, an increase of 36.7%, compared with the beginning of September, 460000 tons of rubber imports in the beginning of the year so far, 3640000 tons of rubber imports, an increase of 8.6%. imports also pushed up the stock. As of mid November, Qingdao bonded rubber stocks than at the end of last month rose 4.4% to 213600 tons, up 9100 tons. In particular, natural rubber and synthetic rubber stocks have a certain amount of increase, which is more natural rubber. In addition, smoke sheet rubber, styrene butadiene rubber stocks slightly increased, Br inventory unchanged.
Tire enterprises in a difficult situation
Shandong tire enterprises in the near future the total steel 65.08%, semi steel tire operating rate of 66.72%. full steel tire market demand is insufficient, the start of basic remain stable, and the recent increase in the number of semi steel tires, some manufacturers to improve the operating rate. This year the traditional sales season "golden nine silver ten" did not come, tire demand continues to be weak, businesses increased pressure on the stock, part of the enterprise funds transfer difficulties.
Near the end of the year is expected to have a tire sales policy, on the one hand, the tire business needs to stimulate end consumption to reduce inventory pressure, on the other hand is the need to return the funds. At present, the end of the year before the merchant inventory will have to control reasonable inventory based.
The heavy truck market in October before the cumulative sales year-on-year drop
October, 1.6L emissions and the following vehicle purchase tax halved preferential policies began to work, the policy driven, car sales have increased. But distributors of funds nervous, slow-moving vehicles clear inventory pressure, does not have sufficient funds to purchase the best-selling models, leading to irrational inventory structure. Therefore, the overall inventory level of dealers is still large, the operating situation has not been significantly improved.
However, despite the improvement in sales of small cars, but with the needs of the Haitian more closely related to the heavy truck market is still skating on thin ice. October, about 4.4 million units for the domestic heavy truck market sales of all types of vehicles, than 51296 over the same period last year vehicles fell 14%, ring than in September increased by 5%; 1 - 10 months cumulative sales of 45.28 million, down 29%, a net decrease of 18 million. This year, the heavy truck market dismal sales is a foregone conclusion, which is largely due to the decline in China's economic growth this year. If the next economy is still not improved, the market demand is still not improved for fear of heavy truck.
Judging from the disk, the recent main 1601 HuJiao contract as a whole is still in weak oscillation, and main 1605 contract trends more weak. From the point of view of the position of the structure, the January contract amount has been reduced, money started in succession to 5 month contract together, is expected to shift positions for the month will be completed this month. Currently, the agio HuJiao contract arrangement should be due to market on the outlook of the bearish sentiment, but if there is no similar storage such as policy support surface, far month premium rates are not as last year, like continues to expand. From the fundamental point of view, there is no support rubber prices strong, recent HuJiao prices continue to fall, breaking the million mark or just around the corner.
This paper is from Shenzhen,, id=593?
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