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Analysis of the trend of the national natural rubber market in the last week
From November 16, 2015 to 20, the domestic natural rubber standard plastic spot prices showed a slight decline, the natural rubber market average price remained at 10020 yuan / ton on Monday, fell to the weekend
9960 yuan / ton, the overall decline in the rate of 0.60%. This week, the natural rubber merchant shipping is slow, the overall market atmosphere of natural rubber is light, the transaction is not very ideal, the trading atmosphere is more
Last week there was a trend of decline.
The reasons for the decline of domestic natural rubber prices are as follows:
One, the macro, the United States in October the new housing starts in the rate of decline of 11%, fell more than 3.8% of the market is expected to start in October, the total number of new housing starts fell to 1060000, a record since March
To the lowest level; in the domestic front, October GDP tracking data increased by 6.57%, the scale of industrial added value increased by 5.6%, compared with the low level of this year's March, while fixed assets
Investment in the first 10 months of this year rose by 10.2%, a record low in 2000. At present, natural rubber prices rose no support, rubber fundamentals fell slightly.
Two, the market, the Shanghai area 14 years of state-owned Yunnan full milk 9250 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; 14 years Hainan state full milk 9100 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton; Shandong
Region 14 years Yunnan state full milk 9400 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; Yunnan area 15 years full latex 9100 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton.
, inventory, by the end of November 20, when the week, the period of natural rubber futures warehouse and last week compared to increase 2147 tons, to 230759 tons, inventory continue to increase, and record in recent years
High. Qingdao Free Trade Zone stocks ended November 16th was 213600 tons, 9100 tons increased, compared with the month to continue to increase, since July inventory continues to rise, the current has more than last year
Level of the same period. The total inventory of the free trade zone, showing the weak consumption.
Four, the demand side, this week, the Shandong area tire enterprises all steel tire construction rate of domestic steel tire operating rate of 62.88%, domestic tire enterprises semi steel tire operating rate of 67.54%, compared with last week
Flat. All steel tire operating rate on the one hand, there is a certain individual manufacturers repair, on the other hand is the individual manufacturers based on the initiative to reduce the pressure of funds. From the same period last year, the operating rate of the situation
, the late start rate will also have a seasonal decline in the process, I am afraid that I can not expect to rely on the start rate of increase to support rubber prices.
Market forecast: the network analysis preliminary forecasts, maintaining market outlook judgment rangebound hujiao. At present, due to the high level of foreign countries, the supply of raw materials is still ample, for the time being not seen for
The situation should be shrinking. On the situation of inventory, the situation is grim, the stock continued to rise in the free trade zone has not been terminated, the total inventory of the stock is also continued to increase, the total
Body inventory increasing pressure. Consumption in the absence of a significant rise in the operating rate of the tire plant, the consumer is difficult to see the bright spot. Rubber temporarily not see obvious benefit
Factors appear, the supply of loose pattern temporarily difficult to break. Fed 12 months is expected to raise interest rates to increase, making the market risks increase, the weak short-term crude oil also to HuJiao have certain repression.
The overall market bearish atmosphere background, HuJiao pressure is still large, proposed to maintain the bearish ideas.
This paper is from Shenzhen,, id=595?
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