In early October 2015, the dollar fell, the international crude oil prices in the background, the price of natural rubber market volatility rose slightly. Poor domestic macroeconomic data, the recent substantial increase in natural rubber imports, Qingdao bonded warehouse and Shanghai futures exchange continued to increase inventory and other factors, in late natural rubber futures, spot market prices fell sharply, both fell below the million mark. The average price of the whole month is still in the down channel, the chain fell by 2.99, a decline of 1.34% percentage points over the previous month, down 38.87%; 1~10 month cumulative decline of 16.26%.
One, the amount of plastic production increased significantly, the amount of imports to maintain high growth
October, the end of the rainy season in the domestic production, adequate supply of water, most of the processing plant to open enough horsepower production, rubber production normal high, compared with the early improvement. Preliminary estimates in October production of 11 tons or so. 1~10 month estimates the national output of about 69 tons, compared with the same period last year fell by 1.4, a decline of 2.8% percentage points over the previous month.
Domestic natural rubber imports continued to increase significantly. According to customs statistics, in October the import of natural rubber 21 tons, an increase of 18.9%, an increase of 37.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, but still at a high level. 1~10 month cumulative imports of natural rubber 217 tons, an increase of 3%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. Synthetic rubber, in October imports of 19 tons, an increase of 63.3%, an increase of 30.2 percentage points over the previous month, 1~10 months of total imports of 146 tons, an increase of 18%.
According to preliminary statistics, in October the new natural rubber resources of 32 tons, a decline of 22.3%, an increase of 14.4%, an increase of 21.9 percentage points over the previous month narrowed. 1~10 month, the new natural rubber resources of 286 tons, an increase of 1.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous month. Overall, although the growth rate of natural rubber has declined, but still at a high level, coupled with a large number of imports in the first few months, the market supply pressure. Statistics of natural rubber added resources in table 12015 years of domestic natural rubber import figure 1.
Table 1 tons of natural rubber new resources statistics
During the period of production in the same period last year: imports an additional resources / an /%
October 18.932 14.4
1~10 2173 -2.8 286 1.5 69
Figure 12015 domestic natural rubber imports
Two, the heavy truck market to be very careful, tire production and sales situation of the poor
The macro environment, the domestic market demand, the economy is slow in stabilization. China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the National Bureau of Service Industry Survey Center released in October 2015 China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.8%, unchanged from the previous month, showing the economic growth continues to maintain a stable trend. But the export orders index fell, reflecting the recovery of exports is still under pressure, the current economic growth is generally at the bottom of the stable state.
In this context, from the point of view of rubber market downstream industries, October car is affected by the impact of the "golden nine silver ten", the traditional peak season, sales than last month have bigger growth, an output end dropped, sales growth continues to rise. 1~10 month, car sales growth over 1~9 months have different degrees of recovery, which yields the end of the decline in momentum, sales rose slightly. Specific point of view, in October the output of 218.87 vehicles, an increase of 15.54%, an increase of 7.06%; sales of 222.16 million, an increase of 9.72%, an increase of 11.79%. 1~10 month, car sales 1928.03 and 1927.81, respectively, an increase of 0.02% and 1.51%. Which is closely related with the natural rubber demand in the heavy truck market is still to be very careful. In October, about 4.4 million units for the domestic heavy truck market sales of all types of vehicles, fell 14%; 1-10 month accumulative total sales of 45.28 million, down 29 percent, a net decrease of 18 million. Tires, after the National Day holiday, Shandong area tire enterprises operating rate rose to 66.44%, but sales are not good. To the end, the operating rate fell again. And in November with the end of the consumption season, the operating rate of tire companies will be difficult to further enhance the space.
Three, natural rubber market prices fall
October, domestic natural rubber prices fell down. Early PMI data as well as crude oil, the impact of the stock index, the price shocks up. In mid performance by macro data is not good, the supply pressure and the downstream is not bright and other factors, the futures prices to weak and continued until the end of the month. Later the central bank and then a "double down" policy, but with little success. Futures trend back to the spot market, the spot price rose slightly in early, late again fell, the whole latex price break. Overall, the average price is still in the downstream channel. According to the China Logistics Information Center market monitoring, in October 2015, the domestic natural rubber composite average prices continued to decline by 1.34%, a decline of 2.99 percentage points over the previous month, down 38.9%. 1~10 month cumulative decline of 16.26%. In 2015 the domestic natural rubber price index trend is shown in figure 2.
Figure 22015 domestic natural rubber price index trend
Specific point of view, the domestic market, domestic full latex (SCRWF) Yunnan e-commerce center sales average price of 10534 yuan (ton price, the same below), the chain rose 48 yuan, the total turnover of 540 tons. Shanghai market average price of 10265 yuan, down 216 yuan, the highest price of 10700 yuan, the lowest price of 10218 yuan; Qingdao market average price of 9600 yuan, down 163 yuan, the highest price of 10700 yuan, the lowest price is 10341 yuan; Tianjin market average price of 9600 yuan, down 235 yuan, the highest price of 10800 yuan, the lowest price is 9700 yuan.
International markets, Thailand RSS3 average price of $1332, down $1365, the highest price of $1270, the lowest price for $6, the average price of $1261 in Indonesia, the highest price of $1285, the highest price of 1230 U. s.dollars, the maturity of the futures market, the average price was $1303, down $1335, the highest price is $28, the lowest was $1230. (Note: the part of the price data from the Bureau of reclamation. The Ministry of Agriculture)
Four, late trend forecast
From a macro perspective, America manufacturing expansion rate slowed down month by month, the Fed rate hike is expected to heat up in December. European Central Bank monetary policy has little effect. Emerging markets and the development of the economy is facing downward risks continue to rise. Many negative factors facing the external environment of China's economy, short-term external demand is difficult to recover. Domestic aspects, from the publication of macroeconomic data in October, CPI rose 1.3%, the former value of 1.6%, inflation expectations remain low, food prices fell significantly, car and other valuable commodity sales performance is not good. PPI fell 6.9 percent, continue to maintain a downward trend decline compared to the first half of has accelerated, indicating that domestic manufacturing industry overcapacity and weak demand, commodity prices continued to decline. The current macroeconomic deflation pressure highlights, will continue to drag on rubber prices rebound.
Supply side, the domestic production areas will continue to enter the stop cutting period after November, the corresponding reduction in output. ANRPC expects member states of this year's rubber production will be lower than last year's 1095.2 tons. But before the Thailand Ministry of agriculture and China in the Group signed a 20 tons of natural rubber import agreement, is expected in November imports will remain high. Inventory, as of mid November, Qingdao bonded rubber stocks rose 4.4% to 21.36 tons, a net increase of 9100 tons. On the whole, the future of short-term domestic market supply excess pressure is still large.
Demand side, tire sales continued weak, business inventories increased pressure, some of the difficulties in the flow of funds. Near the end of the year, the company will be expected to launch tire sales policy, to stimulate the end consumer spending to reduce inventory pressure, while the return of funds. Therefore, before the end of the merchant will lack of inventory, to control reasonable inventory. Subject to the impact of the policy, in October the car sales have increased. But dealers inventory pressure is still large and because of funding constraints cause slow-moving vehicle inventory and higher, irrational inventory structure, overall operating conditions has not been significantly improved.
Overall, November foreign production area is still in the tapping season, the supply of raw materials is still ample. Late import volume or will continue to maintain a high level. Bonded inventory rising momentum has not ended, the exchange of the total inventory is continuously increased, the overall inventory pressure increasing. Consumption, the tire factory operating rate is obviously difficult to pick up, the downstream consumption is no bright spot. In addition, the Fed's interest rate hike in December is expected to increase, making the market risk increased, crude oil short-term weakness also has a certain suppression of natural rubber futures, in the overall market atmosphere is bearish background, November natural rubber prices will remain weak shocks.
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