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Basic situation prediction of natural rubber in 2016
From the planting area to measure the supply in 2016 than in 2015 will continue to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down compared to last year. On the global tapping season, at the beginning of the year begins to enter stop cutting period, but because of the special weather, by the end of 2015 and 2016 January will is Thailand's flourishing period; and domestic production has been fully stop cutting. In late March and early 4 in Hainan and Yunnan before being cut open, Thailand and other countries began to stop cutting, cut to the end of 4 to early 5. Therefore all the year round supply tension should be in at the end of the first quarter and the second quarter, but the supply of seasonal, a high point in the first half of the year or is expected to occur in the April and may. The three quarter is ample supply period, the supply of raw materials abundant often makes rubber prices under pressure.
Is the inventory situation, the Qingdao Bonded Area inventory compared to the last year to high, and stock exchange a new high this year, decided the 2016 inventory pressure is relatively large.
Downstream consumption in 2015, summarize by shrinking demand, 2015 tire production and sales have dropped significantly, especially the heavy truck sales, in the second half of the year began to 30-40% year-on-year decline in most of the month, a larger decline. Heavy truck annual cumulative drop compared to the same period about 27%. Since 2014 the supply consumption dropped slightly, making the supply and demand balance tilt.
2016 heavy truck sales appear again such obvious decline in the probability of zero chance and countries in 2016 or and some of the fiscal stimulus measures introduced, a certain degree of heavy truck sales stimulation, but also did not expect much. At the same time, highlight possible in passenger car this, the state to purchase and below 1.6 liters of displacement passenger car halved to implement the collection of vehicle purchase tax preferential policies and "car to the countryside" policy introduced, passenger car sales will improve.
Point of view: 2016 or face is reduced supply growth and demand increased slightly in the situation, the supply pattern in 2015 a little tight, but because of shrinking demand too serious, 2016 downstream demand is because of the rise of small cardinality, cannot hope to change the pattern of supply and demand. So 2016 will be a process at the bottom of the shock bottom, is expected to 2016 interval of natural rubber is 10000-15000 yuan / ton.
In this paper, from Shenzhen City, Qi Yu Silicone Rubber Co., Ltd.: http://www.szhcty.com/news_v.asp? Id=631
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