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Trend analysis of natural rubber in 2016
Trend analysis of natural rubber in 2016
Latest news reports, natural rubber from the planting area to estimate, in 2016 the supply will continue to increase in 2015, but the increase compared to last year has slowed. On the global tapping season, at the beginning of the year begins to enter stop cutting period, but because of the special weather, by the end of 2015 and 2016 January will is Thailand's flourishing period; and domestic production has been fully stop cutting. In late March and early 4, Hainan and Yunnan were gradually opened, Thailand and other countries began to stop cutting, open cut to the end of 5 by the end of 4 early. So tight supply should be in the end of the first quarter of the year and the two quarter, but the supply of seasonal view, the first half of the high point or is expected to occur in 4, May. The three quarter is ample supply period, the supply of raw materials abundant often makes rubber prices under pressure.
On the inventory situation, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory compared to last year, while the stock exchange hit a new high this year, the decision of the 2016 inventory pressure is still relatively large.
Downstream consumption in 2015, summarize by shrinking demand, 2015 tire production and sales have dropped significantly, especially the heavy truck sales, in the second half of the year began to 30-40% of the year on year decline in most of the month, a larger decline. Heavy truck annual cumulative drop compared to the same period about 27%. Since 2014 the supply consumption dropped slightly, making the supply and demand balance tilt.
2016 heavy truck sales appear again such obvious decline in the probability of zero chance and countries in 2016 or and some of the fiscal stimulus measures introduced, a certain degree of heavy truck sales stimulation, but also did not expect much. At the same time, highlights may be in this car, the state of the country to buy 1. 6 liters and the following displacement by car to implement the preferential policies for the purchase of vehicle purchase tax and the introduction of the policy of the car to the countryside, passenger car sales will be raised.
Point of view: 2016 or face is reduced supply growth and demand increased slightly in the situation, the supply pattern in 2015 a little tight, but because of shrinking demand too serious, 2016 downstream demand is because of the rise of small cardinality, cannot hope to change the pattern of supply and demand. So in 2016, will be a bottom shocks bottoming process, is expected to 2016 natural rubber operation interval 10000-15000 were yuan / tons.
In this paper, from Shenzhen City, Qi Yu Silicone Rubber Co., Ltd.: http://www.szhcty.com/news_v.asp? Id=635
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